We've posted several articles about pilot age limits/mandatory retirement on this blog. In July we wrote about pilot age limits in the U.S., and in one post last month we noted that the age limit for pilots was raised in three Asian countries.
Of all the issues that should (and do) figure in the debate about this topic, perhaps the primary consideration should be safety. An article published in the July, 2006 issue of Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine, the journal published by the Aerospace Medical Association, addresses safety as it relates to pilot age.
A research team from the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine reviewed the NTSB reports for 588 aircraft accidents in the United States involving carriers flying under 14 CFR Part 121 -- in other words, commercial airline. They looked at reports for accidents that occurred between 1983 and 2002. Of all the pilots involved, all but two were men.
The focus of the study was an analysis of the relationship between pilot error and age. Here is a summary of the main findings (quoting from the report, but re-paragraphed for easier online reading):
The results indicate that the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air carrier accidents are not associated significantly with pilot age.The authors of the study then pose the question, "Why do pilots at different ages make similar errors at similar rates of prevalence in air carrier accidents?"
About 35% of air carrier accidents were attributed to pilot error, regardless of pilot age.
Inattentiveness, flawed decisions, and mishandling aircraft kinetics together accounted for more than two-thirds (70%) of all pilot errors identified in air carrier accidents.
There was little age-related variation in the patterns of pilot error.
They propose the following explanation (quoting again from the report):
We speculate that on of the main reasons might be the safe worker effect.Although the rates at which older and younger pilots have accidents were very similar, the researchers found that the circumstances of accidents did vary somewhat with age. This is what they found:
Air carrier pilots are a highly selected occupational group. In addition to periodical medical examinations that are designed to screen out those physically and mentally unfit, pilots are subject to constant competence tests on the job.
Pilots showing deficiencies in flight proficiency and safety performance are likely to be grounded by license termination or other attritional mechanisms (e.g., early retirement, and death due to disease or accident).
Therefore, pilots who remain on active duty at older ages are likely the safer (and healthier) individuals.
These selection mechanisms may have precluded or considerably attenuated the effects of aging on safety performance on professional pilots.
Specifically, accidents involving older pilots are more likely to be related to turbulence, whereas a disproportionate percentage of accidents involving younger pilots are taxiing events, such as hitting a moving aircraft or vehicle.The researchers believe that this difference may be accounted for by the fact that older pilots with more seniority typically fly larger aircraft and longer trips, while younger pilots are more likely to fly shorter trips and make more frequent takeoffs and landings, thus exposing them to a greater risk of taxiing accidents.
You can read the whole article in the July, 2006 issue of the journal Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine, available at most university and medical school libraries. You can access the abstract of the article on line (see link below), and can download the whole article from the journal's website for $15.00.
Source: Li, G., Grabowski, J., Baker, S., & Rebok, G. (2006). Pilot error in air carrier accidents: Does age matter? Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine, Vol. 77, pp. 737-741.
Technorati Tags: aircraft accidents,aircrew, airlines, airline pilots, aviation, aviation research, aviation safety, pilots, pilot age, pilot error
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